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• Wrigley Rooftop Directory
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SammyStock 2004! Day FourMonday, December 20, 2004Hey Hey, Cubs Fans! Welcome to SammyStock 2004! Where legitimacy isn't the concern... its just rumors, free, casual rumors, with whoever happens to be in the majors. We've got a lot of great suitors out there, so lets get Rumor mongering! Yeah! Lets Give it up for...... The RockiesThere may be no other team in baseball which Sammy would like to be traded to more than the Rockies. The thought of playing 81 games a year at Coors field probably gives Sammy the shivers. Over the past three years, Sammy has hit .378 with a .425 OBP while visiting Coors. His slugging percentage is a ridiculous .865, and his OPS is 1.290. He has hit five home runs in his last 37 at-bats in Denver. If that is too small of a sample size for you, his career numbers aren't that much different. In 186 career at-bats at Coors, Sammy is averaging .349 with a .425 OBP, a .758 SLG, and a 1.183 OPS. Sammy just loves Colorado, when you add in Sammy's 53 at-bats at Mile-High, he has hit 25 home runs in 239 AB (9.56 AB/HR, its 8.86 AB/HR in Coors). OK, to recap, Sammy likes Coors, the Cubs don't like Sammy, so it sounds like we've got a pretty good fit. Who? Todd Helton, thats who. Although the talent is not exactly a match, Helton is still in his prime while Sosa appears well through his, Helton's larger than enormous contract gives the Rockies plenty of reasons to send him on his way. The payment schedule?
If Sammy gets traded, his contract ensures him payouts of...
If the Cubs don't trade him the 2006 year becomes an option of $4.5 million or the $18 million. As far as I can tell, Sammy gets the $3.5 no matter what. So, if the Cubs hold on to him, they owe him a total of $25 million, and Sammy doesn't get $13.5 million. So, with all the numbers on the table, the deal should be this. I believe if Helton were on the market today, he would get a six year deal at $13 million per year, or $78 million. Sammy would probably earn about $9 million for the next two years, meaning the Rockies are bringing $41.3 million of excess salary to the table, while the Cubs have $20.5 million in excess salary. The Cash flows should look like this...
This effectively leaves the team that signed the player to the bad contract to pay the excess salary the player is owed, while the team getting the player pays the player what they would be worth on the market today. In other words, the Rockies would pay Sammy $18 million over the next two years (his fair market value) and the Cubs would cover the rest ($20.5 million.) For Helton, because his deal runs longer than he would get on the market today, the Rockies pay the excess value of the contract for the first six years, and then split the seventh year equally with the Cubs. Now, I realize that this deal would take the Cubs out of the running for Beltran, but frankly, I'd rather have Helton.
Both are obviously fantastic hitters, but I would clearly select Helton. Although he has a few extra years in his prime to help his numbers, all those statistics are on the road, and most players hit better at home, even if home is not Coors field. So the deal? Sosa for Helton as described above, which has the tradeoffs of not getting Beltran, but also not having to deal with Scott Boras. I'd take the deal in a second... if it were offered. ... The DiamondbacksThe deal that sends Sammy to the D-Backs is there for the taking. Its a three way deal with the Yanks, and Diamondbacks, and it occurs as soon as Shawn Green invokes his no-trade clause. Sammy goes to the Diamondbacks. They send "The Big-Unit" to the Yankees. The Yanks then send Javier Vasquez to the Cubs with a sack of cash. Vasquez will earn $10.5, $11.5, and $12.5 million in '05, '06, and '07 respectively. So the Cubs would probably want at least $5 million for taking Vasquez. ... The GiantsBrian Sabean wants desperately to win a World Series with Barry Bonds. He loves the old, washed up, over-paid, veterans... and having Sammy hit behind Barry might just get them over the top. However, the problem is that the Giants are trying to win now, just like the Cubs and neither team is looking to part ways with quality veterans who can help a team win now. Still, this is Sammy we are talking about, Sammy Sosa! So, the deal is this: Sammy, Kyle Farnsworth, and Mark Prior to the Giants in return for Jason Schmidt, Matt Herges, and a Per Diem for Wendell Kim to drive Dusty's dog across country to Chicago. Oh, and a little of that flax-seed cream you have out there... Dude, that stuff really works. ... The DodgersSammy for Shawn green when Green decides he doesn't want to play for the D-Backs. Sorry for the cop-out on those last few teams. I get off work in 10 minutes, and drive home after that. I may update in a day or so SammyStock 2004! Day One - AL West.
Posted by Byron at 1:39 PM
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| Excerpt From: "Union wants to 'discuss' Rockies decision" By: The Associated Press, ESPN.com, Mon. Dec 6, 2004 |
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The Rockies terminated the oft-injured pitcher's contract Monday, three days after he was cited for solicitation. "This decision is about an organization and the fans that support it," Rockies chairman Charles Monfort said. "Denny's pattern of behavior has not been consistent with what our organization represents." ... Colorado cited section 7 (b) (1) of the Uniform Player Contract, which states the team can terminate the contract if a player shall "fail, refuse or neglect to conform his personal conduct to the standards of good citizenship and good sportsmanship or to keep himself in first-class physical condition." |
I guarantee you the players association will fight this with all their strength, because the precedent could permit owners to get out of contractual 'mistakes' whenever a player does something boneheaded.
Example? The Yankees could decide to void Kevin Brown's contract after he punches a wall breaking his hand. After all, that is not very Sportsmanlike. (Trust me, my parents made me write essays on sportsmanship when I was in 4th grade because I got angry with my teacher for changing the rules of a game on 'grandparents' day.)
How about the Farns? Kicking that fan (the wind generating kind) wasn't so sportsmanly. Then of course there was Frankie Francisco of the Rangers who broke a fan's (the paying, cheering, and jeering kind) nose in Oakland this year, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
Now if you are like me, you are saying... 'hey these are times when guys deserve to have their contracts voided, why are you defending them?' I'm not. I think baseball players should deal with the economics of life the way most of us do. If you lose your head at work and hit the customer over the head with A folding chair, you'd probably get fired, and never see another penny. The same should hold true in baseball.
However, only in rare instances have teams been able to void a player's contract, even if the player did something stupid. But, with the voiding of Aaron Boone's contract for playing basketball last off-season (and getting injured), and now the Rockies moving to cut ties with Neagle, it looks like Pandora's box is opening. Of course, George Steinbrenner of the Yankees is jumping on the bandwagon and looking to void Jason Giambi's contract after he admitted to using steroids.
For the owners, any step toward a system like football where contracts are much less guaranteed than they are currently in baseball, is a good step. If the owners have their way this offseason, the winter of 2004-2005 may be remembered more for the blow the player's association took, than the steroid scandal.
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Its Monday, its December, and its raining, and I wish I was laying on a beach somewhere warm. SoCal would work... think my brother would get ticked if I went to visit 'him' at USC? (Hi Myles, I know you read this). Anyhow, its gray and overcast, and I am pretty grumpy.
So that leads in quite well to today's rather random remarks.
I found a new blog that I like and that I think fans of this blog would like. Its called The Sports Economist and it covers a lot of the kinds of things I like to talk about here. He's got a discussion about the New England Patriots owner who is eyeing an English soccer team, and another about the effects of building stadiums in downtown Cleveland. Sure, he's often off the Cubs/baseball topic, but most of his posts hit on Sports Business... a subject which you might understand, fascinates me.
On ESPN.com, I ran across a story by the AP saying that the city of New York believes the Yankees owe the city another $3.59 million in taxes following an audit of the team for the years 2001-2002. See, its not just Chicago who likes to ask their teams for more money when they need it.
Last week, MLB voted to allow the Expos to move to Washington D.C. Of course, Peter Angelos of the Orioles voted against the move, and I agree with him. With the Nationals in the National League, Angelos gets three games a year to work up a rivalry. Of course, if the Nationals and the Devil Rays were to switch leagues, it would solve a number of problems for MLB.
Also, the owners made the move contingent upon a new stadium being built in Washington D.C. which the city council approved, but capped at $630 million. Geez! Its just a ballpark isn't it? According to BallParksofBaseball.com SBC (Pac-Bell) Park only cost $255 million. I would say Pac-Bell turned out well. Anyhow, this situation in Washington is just another example of why I don't like public financing for ballparks. Are there any publicly financed ball parks that are excellent? (I should find out about PNC). Uninformed Opinion: Publicly financed parks come out worse and cost much more than their private brothers.
And finally, Bud Selig's bid to sell the Brewers hit a snag last month, but you can expect it will go through eventually.
Lastly, the next two weeks are going to be busy for the Cubs, and for me. I have projects due, and final exams to take... so things might get a little slow around here.
P.S. I'm sure you have already read it, but if you haven't, you MUST go read Derek Smart's (at The Cub Reporter) Assuming the Position: Third Base. It is excellent.
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For the un-initiated fan, you may be asking yourself why the Tribune company is always searching for new revenue streams. To this I reply: The Cubs must keep up with the Joneses to remain a viable franchise. Player salaries tend to keep pace with revenue growth, leaving a fairly constant profit margin for the teams who can grow revenue at the league average.
So, the Cubs must keep increasing their revenues to stay ahead of the league average, thus preserving their profitability and franchise value. Also, they must keep up their revenue growth so that they can continue to field competitive teams... enabling them to grow their revenues.
In the last weeks, the Cubs have made three public moves to increase revenues. They increased ticket prices, and announced that they will be adding a rotating advertisement board behind home plate. They have also announced a desire to begin hosting concerts.
| Excerpt from: Cubs have bit more in mind than just baseball By: Gary Washburn, Chicago Tribune Dec. 1, 2004 |
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The Cubs are exploring the possibility of hosting a concert at Wrigley Field for two days over next year's Labor Day weekend, officials said Tuesday. Team executives have broached the subject with Ald. Thomas Tunney (44th) and, though no artists have been signed, they have floated the name of musician Jimmy Buffett as a possible choice. "If the Cubs are not in town, Labor Day weekend is normally a quiet weekend" in the Wrigley area, Tunney said. "On the positive side, there would be some economic [benefits] to the community. On the negative side, quality of life issues would be compromised." Any accord would have to include "significant give-backs to the community," Tunney said. As part of any agreement, some of the proceeds from the concerts could go to local schools or parks, sources said. "If we did anything, and it's a big `if,' there are a lot of questions we need to answer first," said Michael Lufrano, Cubs vice president of community affairs. "We would need to make sure we did it in cooperation with our community. We would need to make sure we did it in a way that doesn't harm the field for baseball." ... Gregg Kiriazes, chairman of the Neighborhood Protections Committee of the Lake View Citizens Council, said he has an open mind about limited use of Wrigley for concerts as long as community concerns about crowd and congestion control and other potential problems are addressed. A concert next year would set a precedent, Kiriazes said. "Any of us would be foolish to say it doesn't. [But] it is a great venue, a great neighborhood and it's a natural. I am surprised something like this hasn't come up before." ... On another front, Cubs officials are studying the possible use of trolleys or shuttle buses to help reduce congestion on game days, Tunney and Lufrano said. Under consideration is possible service between a nearby Metra station and the ballpark and between Michigan Avenue-area hotels and Wrigley. |
You think the trolley's gonna be free? Yeah, Sure. Now, it looks like the Cubs are gonna tick off cab drivers.
| Excerpt from: Cubs propose placing ads behind home plate By: Gary Washburn, Chicago Tribune Nov. 29, 2004 |
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The Cubs would install an electronic advertising sign behind home plate at Wrigley Field and add 32 seats to a temporary seating area that would become permanent under a proposal that will be considered by the Commission on Chicago Landmarks, officials said Monday. The 10-by-3-foot sign would be in the frame of the typical television camera shot that takes in the pitcher, catcher and batter. A total of 80 permanent seats would be installed in an area adjacent to the dugout on the right field side of the park where there have been 48 folding chairs, said Peter Scales, a spokesman for the city's Planning Department. A chain-link fence around the area would be replaced by a brick wall, he said. "These plans balance the historic preservation of the park with the operating needs of the Chicago Cubs," Scales said. "Therefore, the Planning Department is recommending that the Landmarks Commission approve it." Because the ballpark is an official city landmark, all proposed changes must undergo commission review. Wrigley Field and the Cubs are owned by Tribune Co., which also owns the Chicago Tribune. The sign would produce $3 million to $5 million in ad revenues annually. For at least the 2005 season, team officials won't accept any advertising for tobacco products or hard liquor, said Michael Lufrano, Cubs vice president of community affairs. |
Between the concert and the ad board, the Cubs could recognize probably about $6 million in revenues.
If the Cubs add 80 seats to Wrigley, the new seating capacity would be 39,638 (it is currently 39,558, but this number does not include the 48 folding chairs.)
Assuming the Cubs charge the same price for the new seats as the 213 dugout seats they added last year, the Cubs would have an extra $1,104,000 in revenue from ticket sales.
$6 million from concerts & ad-board + $1.1 million from new seats + $2 million from XM radio contract + $3.5 million from expected gain on sale of expos = $12.6 million in new revenues.
In other news, the Astros started the Carlos Beltran bidding at $13.5 million per year... only $.9 million to go.
Moreover, the Cubs ticket sale revenue was about $90 million last year. They raised ticket prices 17.5%, so thats another $15.75 million.
So, please do not tell me that we cannot afford Carlos Beltran. We can. The question is, how bad do we want him?
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I wrote at length about how I wanted the Cubs to sign Dave O'Brien as their play-by-play man, but failed to say anything when the Cubs hired Len Kasper last week. One of the reasons I didn't write anything is that I don't think I have ever heard Kasper call a game. I am going to enter the season with an open mind on the whole situation, and try to remember that Chip Caray wasn't all that good, so if Kasper makes some rookie mistakes, I won't start harping about the 'good ole days' of Chip and Stoney.
The Cubs signed Neifi Perez. It was a horrible decision as far as I am concerned.
The Cubs signed Glendon Rusch to a 2 year $5 million contract. I doubt that we'll be as pleased with Rusch in the next two years as we were this year, but a winning team needs someone to take the role that Rusch pitched in this past year. I am opposed to Rusch being the fifth starter, but would like to see another lefty starter if the Cubs don't bring back Clement.
I was inspecting my site statistics the other day and found a new blog that has linked to me, called Baseball News Blog it looks like its updated pretty frequently, but doesn't have a lot of original material. On the other hand, its a good starting point to find some interesting blogs for other teams. Also, I am now officially jealous of the 'random blog' button and will probably be asking if I can copy the code.
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For readers of the various 'Cubs Blog Army' sites this winter, there has been more activity among the writers than for the Cubs. Most notably Derek Smart moved from 'The Big Red C' to The Cub Reporter. In our little cottage industry, thats about on par with a hypothetical Coca-Cola/Pepsi merger... frankly I'm wondering why the SEC wasn't out here enforcing anti-trust laws :)
In another acquisition, Transplanted Cubs Fan was acquired by the Most Valuable Network. We have also had a few retirements, such as Brian Gunn from Red-Bird Nation. Although he wasn't an official member of the CBA, he was a tremendous help to me. At one point in October, Brian's site sent me more traffic than TCR... and I'm not exactly a Cardinals blog... that goes to show you the kind of traffic and influence Brian had... and rightly so, his posts were excellent.
Well, TheCubdom.com has its own M&A news to announce as well. Starting today, I have begun posting on "The Goat Riders of the Apocalypse." I am not leaving TheCubdom I am just adding some extra work on the side.
Joining me at goatriders.org will be Kurt Evans of "Cub Fan Nation," Bill Kelly of "Rooftop Report," and Rob Letterly formerly of "The Uncouth Sloth."
To my knowledge, Rob is the only one leaving his current blog, and that decision was made before he came on board for goat riders.
A brief history: On October 15, Kurt posted his idea for the Goat Riders on his site. I read the idea and really liked it, and told him I was in. We kicked around some names for people within the Cubs Blog Army we wanted to join us... and a month later the final roster was set.
After some discussion, we chose a URL: http://www.goatriders.org, and figured out the hosting packages. The design was drawn up by yours truly... and we are set to work. I for one am pretty excited about this great opportunity.
A Mission Statement: We don't have anything too formal, but the main goal is to provide thoughtful, impassioned, and funny insights and analysis of the Cubs. We are by no means the second coming of baseball prospectus... but we've all read Moneyball... and taken the Sabermetric principals to heart.
A Methodology for Byron: A significant amount of thought on my behalf has gone into deciding what 'my voice' will be on each blog. Lots has been written about writers developing 'their own voice,' and I pretty much think thats hogwash (then again... I'm hardly a writer.) So, anyhow, I have analyzed my previous posts and they fall roughly into four categories.
My new plan is to keep the Business and Mindless Drivel pieces here at TheCubdom, and sprinkle in some journalizing (the win/loss flags are staying.) Then, I will try to keep most of my posts at Goat Riders as the Statistical analysis pieces, with the requisite journalizing that will need to be written.
Well, thats pretty much what I have to say for now. I just wanted to get in a good plug for "The Goat Riders of the Apocalypse," and to let you know what I am doing.
Briefly in site news: TheCubdom.com is nearly at the 10,000 visit mark since it began in March! Wow and Thanks!
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